Esoteric Dissertations from a One-Track Mind

January 4, 2008

Iowa Caucus Results

Filed under: politics — Tags: — codesmithy @ 10:07 am

Politico has good coverage of the Iowa caucus results. The Republican side isn’t too hard to understand, since it is a basic straw poll. The Democratic side is a little confusing so here is a picture that explains the process. As the picture shows, only two candidates won the Iowa caucus and went on to win the presidency (Jimmy Carter, and George W. Bush).

The Republican results were (at 96% precincts reporting):

Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 13%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 3%
Hunter 0%

For the Democrats (at 100%):

Obama 38%
Edwards 30%
Clinton 29%
Richardson 2%
Biden 1%
Dodd 0%
Gravel 0%
Kucinich 0%

The Democratic turnout was reported to be around 220,000-plus and the Republican turnout was around 114,000. So, we can put an imperfect list together ranking all the candidates weighted by turnout.

Obama 25%
Edwards 20%
Clinton 19%
Huckabee 12%
Romney 9%
Thompson 4%
McCain 4%
Paul 3%

I don’t want to get into the whole horse race aspect of this, but there are a few conclusions we can draw.

  1. Giuliani is out.  Yes, I realize this is Iowa and Giuliani didn’t really try hard, but even given that, he still should have done better than he did.
  2. Obama is the heir apparent to get the Democratic nod.  However, Edwards and Clinton are both within striking distance.
  3. Democrats are trouncing Republicans in terms of numbers.  I attribute this more to White House scandals and war dissatisfaction than Republicans cynically trying to plant a Democratic candidate they know they can beat.
  4. Paul supporters have nothing to be ashamed of.  No, Ron Paul didn’t do as well as his supporters would have hoped.  However, he trounced Giuliani and is competitive with McCain and Thompson in Iowa of all places.
  5. Huckabee is strong now, but I expect as other candidates such as McCain, Thompson and Giuliani drop out, Romney will start leading.  I think the Paul faction just disappears or goes Democratic.

1 Comment »

  1. […] must admit, I didn’t think McCain had much of a chance, having written: “Huckabee is strong now, but I expect as other candidates such as McCain, Thompson and […]

    Pingback by The Presidential Field Narrows « Esoteric Dissertations from a One-Track Mind — January 31, 2008 @ 9:43 am

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